U.S.A

United States – Regional Geopolitical Analysis & Threat Assessment (Q3 2025)

The United States remains a global superpower, but its domestic and international threat landscape is becoming increasingly complex. Internally, political polarisation and sporadic civil unrest—driven by election-related tensions, immigration debates, and economic disparities—continue to create flashpoints in major urban centres.

Externally, the U.S. faces sustained geopolitical rivalry with China, Russia, and Iran, with heightened tensions over Taiwan, Ukraine, and Middle East policy respectively. Cybersecurity threats remain at critical levels, with state-sponsored cyberattacks targeting U.S. infrastructure, finance, and defence sectors. Meanwhile, foreign terrorist organisations, such as Hezbollah, and domestic violent extremist (DVE) movements—both far-left and far-right—pose ongoing risks to soft targets and government institutions.

The U.S.–Mexico border continues to serve as a conduit for transnational organised crime, including narcotics trafficking, human smuggling, and weapons flow, raising security concerns in the southern states. Strategic focus is also shifting towards Arctic militarisation, Indo-Pacific naval dominance, and the weaponisation of space.

Threat Level: Moderate to High (Variable by State and Sector)

Primary Concerns: Cyber warfare, domestic extremism, geopolitical escalations, civil unrest

Emerging Watch Areas: Biosecurity, quantum-based espionage, political instability during election season

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MENA

Middle East – Regional Geopolitical Analysis & Threat Assessment (Q3 2025)

The Middle East remains one of the most volatile and strategically critical regions on the planet. The regional power struggle between Iran, Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia continues to define the geopolitical landscape, with proxy conflicts and shifting alliances shaping both diplomacy and warfare.

The recent escalation between Israel and Iran—including pre-emptive strikes, cyber operations, and regional proxy clashes—has pushed the region to the brink of a broader war. Iranian-backed militias such as Hezbollah, Houthis, and Kata'ib Hezbollah remain highly active, threatening maritime routes, strategic infrastructure, and Western interests.

Meanwhile, Syria remains fractured, with Russian and Iranian military presence propping up the Assad regime. Iraq faces ongoing instability from militias and sectarian divides, while Lebanon teeters on the edge of state failure. ISIS remnants are resurging in ungoverned spaces in Syria and Iraq, exploiting power vacuums and economic collapse.

In the Gulf, while UAE and Saudi Arabia push ahead with economic reform and regional modernisation, they also remain targets for Iranian asymmetric threats, including drone and missile strikes. Tensions in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait continue to endanger commercial shipping, especially due to Houthi hostilities.

Threat Level: High to Severe (Region-Specific)

Primary Threats: Proxy warfare, missile/drone attacks, terrorism, cyber operations, regional escalation

Emerging Watch Areas: Sudanese instability, Turkish-Kurdish conflict spillover, energy infrastructure sabotage, Gulf maritime security

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Europe

Europe – Regional Geopolitical Analysis & Threat Assessment (Q3 2025)

Europe faces a multi-layered security environment marked by geopolitical tension, economic fragility, and rising internal extremism. The war in Ukraine remains the dominant flashpoint, with Russia’s hybrid warfare—including disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, and energy blackmail—destabilising NATO’s eastern flank. Increased Russian military posturing in Kaliningrad and the Arctic Circle further heightens tensions.

Terror threats persist from Islamist extremist cells, particularly in France, Germany, and Belgium, alongside growing concerns over far-right and eco-terrorist movements. Lone-wolf attacks, soft-target vulnerabilities, and social radicalisation remain active threats, exacerbated by refugee crises and socioeconomic unrest.

Kosovo–Serbia tensions, Turkish assertiveness in the Mediterranean, and growing instability in the Caucasus region all pose secondary regional threats. Intelligence services across Europe are on high alert for foreign espionage, particularly from Russia, China, and Iran, as critical infrastructure and political systems face increasing infiltration attempts.

European cohesion is further strained by economic downturns, energy insecurity, and political fragmentation, creating fertile ground for extremist influence and societal destabilisation.

Threat Level: Moderate to High (Fluctuates by Region and Sector)

Primary Threats: Russian aggression, terrorism, espionage, cyber warfare, political instability

Emerging Watch Areas: Baltic defence posture, Balkan flashpoints, disinformation targeting elections, energy grid vulnerability

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